Written by Derek Alker
Has
a critical new element in the climate fraud been uncovered? Independent
British researcher, Derek Alker, attending the UK lecture tour of
Australian climatologist, Dr Murry Salby, stumbles on an apparent
critical flaw in climate models. Alker finds the models are dependent
only on carbon dioxide (CO2) to change temperature. Incredibly, the
models seem to be pre-programmed so that no other atmospheric variable
is allowed to alter climate. Read Alker's full analysis below:
How the IPCC models human emissions of CO2
accumulating in earth’s atmosphere
By Derek Alker (November 18, 2013)
Wednesday, 26th May, 2010, 09:03 pm in post ten of this thread at the Global Warming Skeptics.info forum. Dr.Jonathan Drake
published one of the most important posts I am aware of thus far in the
ongoing climate debate. At the time I did not realise the full
significance of it, nor it seems did anyone else. But it is worth noting
that Dr. Drake and I had discussed this on a prior occasion without
fully ascertaining its import.
Background
Consensus
scientists and the IPCC state there is a dominant residence time in
excess of 100 years for human emissions of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere.
This arises due to a "need" within the "theory" of a greenhouse effect
(the scientific underpinning of supposed human-caused global warming) to
have the facts fit the emissions data of increasing atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2). All such official data is
measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO).
To
get the emissions data to fit the MLO observations a summation formula,
which is referred to as the Bern 2.5 carbon cycle model, is applied.
The Bern 2.5 CC model has essentially two controlling parameters; a time
constant term and an absorption factor. These are then adjusted to make
the datasets match; and typically they yield a half-life of about 120
years and an absorption factor of about 0.53. In reality, this is simply
a mathematical construct.
The Cumulation Maths Process
Almost
any dataset of gradually increasing positive values could be as
successfully fitted to the MLO CO2 record. Dr Jonathan Drake showed this
by example in a paper called "Is the Met Office to Blame for the Rising CO2 Levels?" (located: www.tech-know-group.com/archives/)
Dr.
Drake notes that – “the cumulation maths process can make almost any
positive data set with an upward trend look like the increase in CO2
within the atmosphere.”
To
illustrate this he compared the reported increasing accuracy of the Met
Offices forecasts, to the annual change of CO2 in the atmosphere. These
are the two datasets to which the same cumulation method will be
applied. Each will have a different pair of variables. The variables are
a scaling factor and a half-life.
This simple function was used:
CO2 = (Old*EXP(-LN(2)/Half_life))+(New*Scale)
Where:
Old = the amount of CO2 left after the last year
New = quantity of CO2 added this year
It can be seen that both datasets produce a reasonable fit to the MLO CO2 measurements.
For the record, the following values were used:
MetOffice forecast: Scaling = 1.4, Half-life = 9.4 years
Emissions: Scaling = 0.57, Half-life = 125 years
The Bern 2.5 Carbon Cycle Model
According
to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in the notes
at the bottom of page 34, AR4 WG1 Technical Summary, this explanation is
written:
"a The CO2 response function used in this report is based on the revised version of the Bern Carbon cycle model used in Chapter 10 of this report (Bern2.5CC; Joos et al. 2001) using a background CO2 concentration value of 378 ppm. The decay of a pulse of CO2 with time t is given by
Where a0 = 0.217, a1 = 0.259, a2 = 0.338, a3 = 0.186, Ï„1 = 172.9 years, Ï„2 = 18.51 years, and Ï„3 = 1.186 years."
The
above equation and values for the parameters, including e-folding times
is the Bern 2.5CC model that the IPCC uses. The first term is a
constant meaning that CO2 will always go up, never down (the cumulation
maths process already described). In fact the Ao term means that
atmospheric CO2 can never go down. There is no known proxy or record of
atmospheric CO2 concentration that does not show CO2 varies both up and
down on any time scale relevant to climate. One of the time constants is
also very long ( 172.9 years) when compared to most studies. [1]
As
you can see, it will never go to zero. If further additions are made,
each will follow the same decay and add to the remainders from all
previous additions.
In simple terms:
The
Ao term in the IPCC's Bern 2.5 carbon cycle model means that 21.7% of
our carbon emissions each and every year NEVER leave the atmosphere.
THAT is how anthropogenic CO2 emissions are calculated to accumulate in
earth's atmosphere by the IPCC.
Has
it been shown that nature can determine between natural-sourced CO2
emissions and human activity-related CO2 emissions? No. Has it been
shown that nature remembers what each years 21.7% of human emissions
were / are? No. But, nature “must,” if human emissions of CO2 are to
accumulate in earth’s atmosphere, as per the IPCC claims, and because of
the Bern 2.5 CC model.
Professor Salby's excellent lecture series also tells us that climate modelling only allows for CO2 to change temperature.
Professor Salby explains that in the global energy budgets, and climate computer modelling –
"a fractional increase in CO2 entirely determines the fractional increase in global temperature"
And:
“changes of global temperature remain in equilibrium with changes of CO2, but nothing else.”
This he explains is because:
“reflected
short wave energy which depends on clouds and ice can not change
independently (of CO2); mechanical heat transfer from the earth’s
surface which depends on the ocean circulation can not change
independently (of CO2); and 99% of long wave energy absorbed by the
atmosphere and re-emitted back downward to warm the earth’s surface,
which depends upon water vapour and cloud can not change independently
of (CO2)”
He continues that:
"In
the model world, that is the part that is consistent between all those
two dozen models, changes in the global energy budget are reduced to a
highly simplified balance, driven exclusively by CO2."
Conclusion
As
I listened to this lecture it became apparent that because the models
are only dependent upon CO2 to change temperature, that the Ao term of
the Bern 2.5CC model means all the climate models of the IPCC can only
produce warming. Am I alone in this realisation?
After
the lecture and during the open 'question and answer' session Professor
Salby and Lord Monckton discussed the Bern carbon cycle model. At this
point I asked them if they were aware of the affect the Ao term of the
model has, specifically that 21.7% of each years human emissions of CO2
NEVER leave the atmosphere and that can only produce a supposed (and
unphysical) accumulation of human emitted CO2 in earth’s atmosphere.
Both men looked astonished and fell silent. After some seconds Professor
Salby asked me:
“How do they justify that?”
Thank goodness Ken Coffman (Stairway Press)
and PSI so generously sponsored Professor Salby’s tour. They have
helped honest scientists to identify where climate modelers must come
clean on this apparent statistical fraud.
*************
[1] Tom
V. Segalstad, 'Carbon cycle modelling and the residence time of natural
and anthropogenic atmospheric CO2:on the construction of the"Greenhouse
Effect Global Warming" dogma,' University of Oslo, Norway.
http://www.principia-scientific.org/?option=com_content&view=article&id=398&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_November_18_2013